First published: 10.08.2023
Last modified: 10.08.2023
Life Cycle Analysis
Heat pump
Gas / fuel boiler alternative
Direct Product Solution

Contact info:

Shamita Chaudhary
Life Cycle Analysis
Heat pump
Gas / fuel boiler alternative
Direct Product Solution
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Envision a future where our cities are healthier, and the energy we use to heat and cool our homes is sustainable and efficient. This technology represents more than just a product; it is a decisive step towards that future. Designed to challenge the dominance of natural gas in urban areas, this solution offers a transformative approach to reducing carbon emissions on a large scale.

Our mission is to make zero-carbon heating and cooling the standard, not the exception. By deploying heat pumps at an unprecedented scale, we are pioneering a more efficient and resilient energy system—one that minimizes energy transmission losses, harnesses waste heat, and empowers cities to adopt sustainable living practices. This initiative is about enabling urban areas, regardless of density, to transition to cleaner, smarter energy solutions, actively contributing to the EU’s Net Zero goals.

As we advance this technology, we are collaborating with ClimatePoint to refine and expand our impact strategy. This partnership is helping us gain deeper insights into various global markets, positioning us as leaders in climate solutions and establishing our role as a data-driven differentiator in the market.

Index

  1. Analysis Parameters
  2. Executive Summary
  3. Life Cycle Overview
  4. Impact Analysis
    1. Impact Aggregation per Scope
    2. Impact Aggregation per Life Cycle Stage
  5. Projections

Analysis Parameters

Goal and scope

Functional Unit

Unit of heat pump

The functional unit for this analysis is a single heat pump unit produced by the company. This unit encompasses all material and service inputs required for production, as well as emissions associated with its operational phase. The heat pump is benchmarked against a conventional natural gas boiler, the primary technology it is designed to replace. This comparison addresses raw material inputs, transport to customers, and operational emissions, providing a comprehensive assessment of the heat pump's environmental performance relative to fossil fuel-based alternatives.

Benchmark

Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

Reference flow

The heat pump's annual energy consumption is estimated at 2,666 kWh/year, equivalent to approximately 9,096,392 BTU/year. This energy use serves as a basis for evaluating the environmental impacts throughout the heat pump's lifecycle.

Goal

The objective of this climate LCA is to quantify the environmental impacts associated with one heat pump unit, from cradle to grave, including production, use, and disposal phases. The analysis aims to identify key impact areas within the value chain, enabling the identification of carbon emission hotspots and providing insights for potential improvements in sustainability.

Reason for study

The study is intended to inform decision-making processes by identifying carbon emission hotspots throughout the heat pump's lifecycle. The findings will guide the production company in focusing on areas with the greatest potential for decarbonization, ultimately enhancing the environmental performance of their products.

Audience

The primary audience for this climate LCA includes the production company and its strategic stakeholders, such as impact investors and key clients. The insights gained from this analysis will be crucial for aligning business strategies with sustainability goals.

Scope

System Boundary

This assessment covers the entire lifecycle of the heat pump, from raw material extraction to end-of-life disposal, encompassing production, transportation, and operational use. The analysis considers direct, indirect, and induced emissions, with a particular focus on Scope 2 and Scope 3 emissions associated with the heat pump.

Lifetime

The heat pump is designed for a lifespan of over 15 years, with the potential for extension through the replacement of certain components. At the end of its life, the refrigerant must be safely removed, and the unit can be dismantled, sorted, and recycled to minimize environmental impact.

Methodology

Meeting international standards

This analysis adheres to Lifecycle Assessment (LCA) methodologies outlined in ISO 14040, 14044, and 14067, ensuring a structured approach, potential comparability between solutions, and transparency for readers. The report is based on data available during the study and within the agreed scope. Results reflect the best available data and methodologies, with accuracy and reliability dependent on data quality and completeness at the time of the study. Limitations or uncertainties in the data are explicitly stated. The data used is precise (considering uncertainties and variability), complete (capturing all inflows and outflows within system boundaries), representative (aligned with geography, time, and technology), and consistent. It should be noted that LCA results depend on system boundaries, allocation methods, data quality, and assumptions; where deviations may affect outcomes. ClimatePoint impact analysts herein apply professional judgment and relevant standards while maintaining client confidentiality.

Data Quality

Technology coverage

The analysis is based on the most up-to-date technological data, utilizing emission factors from the latest version of the Ecoinvent database. This ensures that the assessment reflects the best available technology and its environmental impact.

Temporal coverage

The climate LCA utilizes the most recent data available from the Ecoinvent database, deemed representative for the time period covered by the report. To maintain accuracy and relevance, periodic updates to the assessment will be necessary as new data becomes available.

Geographical boundary

The geographical scope of this climate LCA spans Europe and Asia, reflecting the regions from which raw materials are sourced and where the heat pumps are manufactured. The energy consumption analysis is based on the EU electricity mix, aligning with the regions where the heat pumps are primarily deployed.

Assumptions and limitations

Certain aspects of the lifecycle, such as end-of-life recycling, refrigerant replacement, water emissions, and waste stream management, are discussed qualitatively but not quantitatively analyzed in this report. These areas may offer potential for future emission reductions and could be evaluated in subsequent assessments.

Functional Unit

Unit of heat pump

Executive Summary

Key revelations

The analysis has uncovered several critical insights regarding the environmental and operational impact of heat pumps:

  • Efficiency Gains: The most significant avoided emissions are due to the heat pump’s efficiency compared to natural gas boilers. These recurring annual savings are substantial enough that one year of operation offsets the emissions from the heat pump's production phase.
  • Production Emissions: While the production stage of heat pumps already offers significant emission savings compared to gas boilers, the sourcing of steel stands out as the largest contributor to material emissions, accounting for nearly half of the total. Depending on procurement practices, steel-related emissions could be reduced to as low as 20%.
  • Material Sourcing Impact: Verifying the source and emission intensity of the mild steel used in heat pump production presents the greatest opportunity for further emission reductions.

Insights to Impact Strategy

Key factors highlight the most effective strategies for maximizing the impact of heat pump technology:

  • Operational Efficiency: The greatest impact comes from the efficiency gains during the heat pump’s operational phase, providing substantial benefits for end-consumers.
  • Material Optimization: Reducing emissions from production requires optimizing the heat pump design by minimizing material usage and selecting less emission-intensive materials.
  • Heating Efficiency: Improving the heating efficiency of heat pumps can further reduce emissions and enhance overall performance.
  • Refrigerant Transition: Transitioning to low-GWP refrigerants is crucial to reducing the overall environmental impact, as refrigerants with lower global warming potential can significantly mitigate potential emissions during the heat pump's lifecycle.
  • Market Variability: The avoided emissions from heat pump operation are closely tied to the carbon intensity of the electricity in the specific market of use, which varies significantly from one country to another.

Potential Challenges

Several key factors could influence the overall effectiveness and sustainability of heat pump technology:

  • Material and Energy Use: The production of heat pumps involves significant embodied emissions, particularly from material sourcing and energy use. This necessitates a careful reevaluation of zero-carbon claims to ensure they accurately reflect these sources.
  • Refrigerant Regulations: Upcoming regulations on refrigerant use may impact overall emissions reduction efforts. Implementing a system to track and monitor refrigerants is essential for compliance and minimizing their environmental impact.
  • Transport Emissions: The emissions associated with transporting heat pumps could offset some of the environmental benefits. Exploring more sustainable transport options or reducing travel distances will be important in addressing this factor.

Possible Rebounds

While heat pumps offer substantial benefits, several potential rebound effects could diminish their overall impact:

  • Refrigerant Leakage: The high global warming potential (GWP) of refrigerants means that any leakage during production, operation, or disposal could significantly reduce the environmental benefits of heat pumps. Effective management of refrigerant leakage is crucial.
  • Material Waste During Production: Inefficient manufacturing processes can lead to substantial material waste, particularly with metals, plastics, and electronics. Reducing material waste is essential to minimizing environmental and financial costs.
  • Operation in Fossil Fuel-Dependent Grids: In regions where the electricity grid is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, the operation of heat pumps may lead to higher-than-expected emissions, reducing the anticipated environmental gains.
  • Lifecycle Impacts: Challenges across the heat pump’s lifecycle—from production to disposal—could negate some benefits, particularly if end-of-life disposal isn’t properly managed.

Climate Value Proposition

Key elements that define the climate value of heat pump technology:

  • Sustainable Alternative: Heat pumps serve as a sustainable alternative to natural gas boilers, significantly reducing emissions during the operational phase.
  • Operational Impact: The primary climate value is realized during the use phase, where heat pumps generate far fewer emissions compared to conventional heating methods.
  • Scope 1 Benefits: The energy produced by heat pumps directly replaces combustion emissions from incumbent boiler technologies, particularly evident in Scope 1 downstream impacts.
  • Manufacturing Efficiency: Compared to gas boilers, heat pumps offer lower embodied emissions in the manufacturing phase, captured in Scope 3 upstream processes, including the carbon intensity of mild steel.

Life Cycle Overview

Understanding your emission profile

This process summary depicts an overview of the most significant emission factors that take place throughout your lifecycle activity. By viewing these intensities alongside each other, you can gauge their relative importance with respect to positive and negative extremes. Each process item listed on the horizontal axis will be described further in the Scope Allocation Analysis where readers can dive into the details behind each of the data points. While this model represents the complete overview, we make sure that each factor is supported by a sound methodology.

Building your impact foundation

Some process items may remain blank because the ClimatePoint team has considered them to be out of project scope, insignificant, or without enough information to analyse. These gaps should eventually be completed as you aim for your emission profile to approach higher levels of accuracy. Because of this presentation, you can understand which additional data is necessary to complete your entire impact profile and accommodate the dynamic growth and scalability of your company. ClimatePoint is here to help you navigate this pathway and optimize your impact strategy.

Benchmark: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

Impact Category: Climate change

Benchmark: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

Impact Category: Climate change

Process Overview

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Connecting academia with business

The scope allocation analysis is the ClimatePoint strategy to bridge the LCA emission assessment to the world of corporate GHG reporting. When our team approaches a new technology, we start with the most significant aspects that outline both your generated emissions and your avoided emission impact. The following process items represent these key factors backed by a defined methodology approach. This format permits the technology to be strategically aligned with our global climate targets, challenged for verification, and refined with evolution and growth. As the climate solution matures, we can easily update or add process items making this a truly dynamic report. This ClimatePoint approach integrates impact foundations outlined by the international community. To help you interpret the key climate aspects of your technology, we assign each process item two labels to serve as high level indicators.

Your most significant climate impact

The "Score" evaluates processes based on comparative impact: Aligned signifies measurable emission reductions compared to the benchmark; Potential suggests possible alignment pending further verification; Negative denotes additional emissions; Rebound identifies emissions that would have otherwise not occurred with the benchmark; and None represents qualitative assessments. The "Priority" label ranks processes by importance: High indicates critical processes essential for achieving key sustainability objectives, warranting immediate attention; Medium represents processes contributing to the impact profile that require attention but lack urgency; and Low applies to supplementary processes with less immediate impact or those already aligned, allowing deferred action until higher-priority tasks are addressed.

#
Process item
Scope
Score
Priority

Impact Analysis

Functional unit profile

This graph represents the aggregation of all the aforementioned emission factors with respect to the defined functional unit. By selecting a benchmark, the corresponding avoided emissions will also be displayed on the graph. This enables you to see the difference in the emission profile that this climate solution has to the incumbent technology. There is also an effect filter to identify which impact factors only occur once and which recur multiple times, usually throughout the lifetime use of the product or service. You can click the process labels in the legend to hide and show different elements to reveal further insights.

  • Scope 1 Upstream (Direct impact): Emissions sequestered directly from on-site processes such as direct air capture technologies.
  • Scope 1 Downstream (Direct impact): Emissions from sources directly controlled, such as fuel combustion or factory emissions.
  • Scope 2 Upstream (Indirect impact): Emissions from the generation of purchased energy (e.g., electricity, heating) used by the company.
  • Scope 2 Downstream (Indirect impact): Emissions from power sold, such as energy generation emissions from power sold to external users.
  • Scope 3 Upstream (Value chain impact): Activities before production, such as raw material extraction and supplier operations.
  • Scope 3 Downstream (Value chain impact): Activities after production, such as product use, distribution, and end-of-life disposal.
  • Scope 4 (Avoided Emissions): Emissions reductions enabled by a company’s products or services across the entire value chain.

Projections

How to read this section

  • Offering projections: The company anticipates significant growth through the increased production and deployment of heat pumps over the coming years, with projections extending to 2030. As the adoption of heat pump technology expands, so too will the company’s market presence and business impact.

    • Production Growth: The company plans to scale up production annually, targeting a substantial increase in the number of heat pumps manufactured each year. This growth is expected to align with rising market demand as more consumers and businesses transition to heat pump technology.
    • Cumulative Heat Pumps in Operation: By 2030, the company projects a significant rise in the cumulative number of operational heat pumps in the market. This expansion will establish the company as a key player in the heating industry, with a growing customer base and market share.

  • Annual Emissions: This bar chart represents the impact per year of the offering projections. The red bars represent the generated emissions, while the green bars represent the avoided emissions reflected on an annual basis. The 'Avoided' = the 'Benchmark' - the 'Generated.' The impact is projected year-over-year, capturing emissions linked to the production and market deployment of heat pumps. This includes both the one-off emissions from producing the technology and the compounded impact of avoiding fossil fuel emissions year after year, providing a comprehensive view of their environmental benefits.

  • Cumulative Emissions: This area chart represents the cumulative impact over the lifetime of the solution. The orange area reflects the total anticipated generated emissions, while the green area reflects the total cumulative avoided emissions. The 'Avoided' = the 'Benchmark' - the 'Generated.' The impact is accumulated over time, reflecting the total emissions associated with the production and widespread adoption of heat pumps. This cumulative projection accounts for both the initial production emissions and the ongoing reduction in fossil fuel use, highlighting the growing environmental benefits as avoided emissions compound year after year.

  • Reaching the ClimatePoint: This line chart represents the time at which the offering has reached its 'ClimatePoint' or 'Impact Break-even point'. As with any new technology entering the market, there is an initial investment phase where emissions are generated through equipment, infrastructure, and other necessary resources. ClimatePoint marks the break-even moment when the solution has offset its cumulative emissions and achieved a net positive climate impact. Reaching this point signifies that the technology has successfully reduced emissions by more than 50% compared to the benchmarked alternative. If this milestone is achieved before 2030, the technology is considered aligned with the Paris Agreement. The intersection of these two lines occurs before 2025, demonstrating that the heat pump’s impact is aligned with a 1.5-degree climate strategy. Achieving this intersection well ahead of 2030 confirms that the technology is on track to meet, and even exceed, the targets set by the Paris Accord.

Scenario 1: Aggregated Projections (Planned Impact)

This scenario outlines the company’s anticipated growth and market impact, focusing on production and market metrics.

  • Production Metrics: The company expects a steady increase in heat pump production, scaling operations to meet rising demand. This includes expanding manufacturing capacity and optimizing supply chains to ensure efficient growth.
  • Market Metrics: The cumulative number of heat pumps in operation is projected to grow significantly, reflecting broader market adoption. The focus is on increasing market penetration and ensuring sustained operation of these units in homes and businesses.

Benchmark 1: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Scenario 1: Aggregated Projections (Planned Impact)

This scenario outlines the company’s anticipated growth and market impact, focusing on production and market metrics.

  • Production Metrics: The company expects a steady increase in heat pump production, scaling operations to meet rising demand. This includes expanding manufacturing capacity and optimizing supply chains to ensure efficient growth.
  • Market Metrics: The cumulative number of heat pumps in operation is projected to grow significantly, reflecting broader market adoption. The focus is on increasing market penetration and ensuring sustained operation of these units in homes and businesses.

Benchmark 2: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

Scenario 2: Single unit impact (produced 2023; installed 2024)

This scenario models the impact of one heat pump produced in 2023 and installed in 2024, with projections extending over 10 years, though the unit's lifespan is expected to be longer.

  • Operational Timeline: The heat pump’s impact is tracked over a decade, accounting for its efficiency and operational performance. While the unit will likely operate beyond this period, the 10-year projection provides a clear view of its short- to mid-term impact.
  • Carbon Intensity Decline: The scenario incorporates the expected decrease in the average carbon intensity of the EU energy mix, as forecasted by the EEA. This results in diminishing recurring emissions over time, reflecting the cleaner energy supply and enhancing the unit’s overall environmental performance.

Benchmark 1: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Scenario 2: Single unit impact (produced 2023; installed 2024)

This scenario models the impact of one heat pump produced in 2023 and installed in 2024, with projections extending over 10 years, though the unit's lifespan is expected to be longer.

  • Operational Timeline: The heat pump’s impact is tracked over a decade, accounting for its efficiency and operational performance. While the unit will likely operate beyond this period, the 10-year projection provides a clear view of its short- to mid-term impact.
  • Carbon Intensity Decline: The scenario incorporates the expected decrease in the average carbon intensity of the EU energy mix, as forecasted by the EEA. This results in diminishing recurring emissions over time, reflecting the cleaner energy supply and enhancing the unit’s overall environmental performance.

Benchmark 2: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

Scenario 3: 100 unit impact (produced 2023; installed 2024)

This scenario models the impact of 100 heat pumps produced and installed in 2024, with projections extending over 10 years, although the lifespan of each unit is expected to be longer.

  • Operational Timeline: The impact of these 100 heat pumps is tracked over a decade, focusing on their combined efficiency and operational performance. While the units will likely continue to operate beyond this period, the 10-year projection offers a clear view of the cumulative short- to mid-term impact.
  • Carbon Intensity Decline: The scenario incorporates the expected decrease in the average carbon intensity of the EU energy mix, as forecasted by the EEA. As the energy grid becomes cleaner over time, the recurring emissions from these 100 units diminish, further enhancing their overall environmental performance.

Benchmark 1: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Scenario 3: 100 unit impact (produced 2023; installed 2024)

This scenario models the impact of 100 heat pumps produced and installed in 2024, with projections extending over 10 years, although the lifespan of each unit is expected to be longer.

  • Operational Timeline: The impact of these 100 heat pumps is tracked over a decade, focusing on their combined efficiency and operational performance. While the units will likely continue to operate beyond this period, the 10-year projection offers a clear view of the cumulative short- to mid-term impact.
  • Carbon Intensity Decline: The scenario incorporates the expected decrease in the average carbon intensity of the EU energy mix, as forecasted by the EEA. As the energy grid becomes cleaner over time, the recurring emissions from these 100 units diminish, further enhancing their overall environmental performance.

Benchmark 2: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

Scenario 4: 1,000 unit impact (produced 2023; installed 2024)

This scenario models the impact of 1,000 heat pumps produced and installed in 2024, with projections extending over 10 years, although the lifespan of each unit is expected to be longer.

  • Operational Timeline: The impact of these 100 heat pumps is tracked over a decade, focusing on their combined efficiency and operational performance. While the units will likely continue to operate beyond this period, the 10-year projection offers a clear view of the cumulative short- to mid-term impact.
  • Carbon Intensity Decline: The scenario incorporates the expected decrease in the average carbon intensity of the EU energy mix, as forecasted by the EEA. As the energy grid becomes cleaner over time, the recurring emissions from these 100 units diminish, further enhancing their overall environmental performance.

Benchmark 1: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Scenario 4: 1,000 unit impact (produced 2023; installed 2024)

This scenario models the impact of 1,000 heat pumps produced and installed in 2024, with projections extending over 10 years, although the lifespan of each unit is expected to be longer.

  • Operational Timeline: The impact of these 100 heat pumps is tracked over a decade, focusing on their combined efficiency and operational performance. While the units will likely continue to operate beyond this period, the 10-year projection offers a clear view of the cumulative short- to mid-term impact.
  • Carbon Intensity Decline: The scenario incorporates the expected decrease in the average carbon intensity of the EU energy mix, as forecasted by the EEA. As the energy grid becomes cleaner over time, the recurring emissions from these 100 units diminish, further enhancing their overall environmental performance.

Benchmark 2: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

Scenario 5: Potential Impact: World Market IEA (until 2030)

This scenario projects the global market impact of heat pumps until 2030, based on the International Energy Agency’s "Net Zero by 2050" report.

  • Global Growth: The scenario reflects the anticipated worldwide adoption of heat pumps, driven by the transition to sustainable energy solutions. The projections illustrate the significant role heat pumps are expected to play in the global effort to reduce carbon emissions by 2050.

Benchmark 1: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Scenario 5: Potential Impact: World Market IEA (until 2030)

This scenario projects the global market impact of heat pumps until 2030, based on the International Energy Agency’s "Net Zero by 2050" report.

  • Global Growth: The scenario reflects the anticipated worldwide adoption of heat pumps, driven by the transition to sustainable energy solutions. The projections illustrate the significant role heat pumps are expected to play in the global effort to reduce carbon emissions by 2050.

Benchmark 2: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

Scenario 6: Potential Impact: World Market IEA (until 2050)

This scenario projects the global market impact of heat pumps through 2050, based on the International Energy Agency’s "Net Zero by 2050" report.

  • Long-Term Global Adoption: The scenario highlights the expected widespread adoption of heat pumps worldwide, as countries transition to cleaner energy systems. It underscores the significant role heat pumps will play in achieving global carbon reduction goals over the next three decades.

Benchmark 1: Avoided heating by Natural Gas

This avoided impact profile highlights the emissions avoided by replacing natural gas boilers with heat pumps, focusing on both the production and operational phases of natural gas heating systems. By adopting heat pumps, the substantial emissions associated with the manufacturing of natural gas boilers, including raw material extraction and energy-intensive production processes, are effectively eliminated. Furthermore, the operational emissions from burning natural gas for heating, a significant source of greenhouse gases, are also avoided. Additionally, potential improvements in transportation logistics, compared to the distribution of gas boilers, further amplify the environmental benefits of switching to heat pumps.

Scenario 6: Potential Impact: World Market IEA (until 2050)

This scenario projects the global market impact of heat pumps through 2050, based on the International Energy Agency’s "Net Zero by 2050" report.

  • Long-Term Global Adoption: The scenario highlights the expected widespread adoption of heat pumps worldwide, as countries transition to cleaner energy systems. It underscores the significant role heat pumps will play in achieving global carbon reduction goals over the next three decades.

Benchmark 2: Avoided heating by Fuel Oil

This avoided impact profile demonstrates the emissions avoided by substituting fuel oil boilers with heat pumps, addressing both the production and use phases of fuel oil heating systems. Transitioning to heat pumps eliminates the considerable emissions linked to the manufacturing of fuel oil boilers, as well as the carbon-intensive process of burning fuel oil for heat. Moreover, improvements in transportation logistics, particularly when compared to the delivery and distribution of fuel oil and boilers, enhance the environmental advantages of heat pumps over traditional fuel oil systems.

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